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Jingdong book

汉译世界学术名著丛书：商业循环问题及其调整

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Jingdong book

汉译世界学术名著丛书：商业循环问题及其调整

Name: 汉译世界学术名著丛书：商业循环问题及其调整
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3110046701
Price: 32.35 USD
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《汉译世界学术名著丛书：商业循环问题及其调整》附有关于美国国家经济研究局理事处理研究局经济工作的决议。自从研究局成立以来，所内研究人员进行新的研究工作的一切建议，事先照例都须经过理事会或其执行委员会批准，研究人员并须定期向执行委员会和理事会年会报告工作进行情况。一个研究工作完成之后，初稿先分发给研究人员批评修正，然后由研究理事转送理事会全体成员审查。研究结果非经过理事会半数以上成员的书面批准，不得出版；理事如果仍有不同的意见（而研究人员不接受这种意见时）在出版时也可以一起发表。新的决议对于这个手续的步骤规定得更明白，要求提出准备工作原则与方法的书面计划，在交来最后定稿时必须附一提纲。它明确地说明理事会的责任，并且限定理事会投票的期限。
理事会的决议表示它承认研究局打算从抱有各种不同意见的人们那里，取得使所发表的结论不至于发生偏差的保证的办法是成功的。起初，这方面的朋友们根据以下两个彼此矛盾的理由，害怕这种办法不能实行。他们说：一方面，意见分歧会使研究人员左右为难，影响到研究结果的发表，另一方面，会发现难以聘到那些事务纷繁的人，让他们抽出必要的时间从事此项科学的陪审工作。

Catalogue

前言
关于美国国家经济研究局理事处理研究局经济研究工作的
决议
序

第一章商业循环所牵涉的各种过程
一、研究的计划
二、问题的发现
三、越来越多的解答
四、现今流行的学说
五、进一步研究的计划

第二章经济组织与商业循环
一、商业循环和货币使用在历史上的关系
二、现代的营利组织
三、物价系统
四、货币的作用
五、货币支付量
六、经济活动的指南
七、国际经济组织的差别
八、结论

第三章统计的贡献
一、理论工作和统计工作通常的区别
二、使用统计方法的发展
三、时间数列的分析
四、计量各个时间数列之间的关系
五、各个过程中循环、不规则变动的幅度和时间
六、商情指数
七、需要把理论、统计和历史综合起来

第四章商业年鉴的贡献
一、国家经济研究局搜集的商业年鉴
二、商业年鉴的可靠性
三、商业变动的循环性质
四、商业循环的期间
五、商业循环的国际关系

第五章结果与计划
一、商业循环的概念
二、初步工作计划

附录
译名对照表

Book Abstract

需求越来越多，价格越来越高，这就使遇到这种情况的每一行业的企业预期得到的利润增大。预期利润的增大使企业资本有更高的估价，这当然就意味着作为附属担保品的财产价值的增加。
这样，就使活跃行业所主要依靠的信贷扩展容易到来。
日益增多的需求、日益增高的价格、日益增加的获得利润的可能性、企业资本的估价和日益扩大的信贷，这些接连发生的事情的过程，只要它的基础存在，便以日益增长的规模重演着——它的基础是，所预期的需求或售价的上升大于所预期的成本的上升。但是，这个过程最终会破坏它的基础。因为，企业的费用会由于人工成本日益增加以及企业所购买的各种货物价格逐渐提高而增大起来。其结果是，企业的成本越来越接近所预料的售价，使得所预期的利润边际越来越少。接着，市场开始觉得它此前对企业资本所做的估价似乎过高。因此，在产业社团的估价中，业经借出的款项的担保品价值缩减，并且担保品不再被认为是偿清债务的适当保证。景气时期所特具的有把握的期待变成惴惴不安的情绪。只要有一个大的债权人认为，他的债务人现今的赢利能力使他必须低估他们担保品的价值，这种低估担保品价值就会引起普遍的危机。此种情况一经产生，清算就开始了。清算从一个产业蔓延到另一个产业，于是景气便转变为不景气。
凡勃伦和大多数其他作家有个不相同的地方，他认为，不景气一经开始，就倾向于持续存在，而不倾向于使商业活跃恢复过来。财政困难的企业，在改弦更张的时候会降低它们的固定费用，这样就把最弱的竞争者转变成为最危险的竞争者。但是，比这一点更为重要的是：现代机器工业所特有的技术不断发展，使随时都在建立的新工厂，在开头时，和机器已经部分陈旧的旧工厂比起来，处于大大有利的地位。由于这些情况，不降低对于资本的估价而要得到相当的利润，是很困难的，而且这种困难是个长期性的困难。所以，景气时期具有插曲的性质，它是由于货物需求意外的增加而产生的，而且由于上面所提到的接连发生的事件，不久就转变成为正常的不景气的状态。
……

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