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Jingdong book

教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:转型时期消费需求升级与产业发展研究

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教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:转型时期消费需求升级与产业发展研究

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《教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:转型时期消费需求升级与产业发展研究》借鉴发达国家的历史经验,以中国改革开放以来经济社会的双重转型为背景,以经济增长—居民收入变动—消费需求升级和消费行为变化—产业发展为主线,以居民收入的快速增长、收入分配结构的变化和中等收入阶层的形成为切入点,揭示转型时期中国消费需求升级的表现形式、主要动因和主要特征,深入研究消费需求升级与产业发展的内在关联机制,进而对消费需求升级背景下的产业发展,包括产业技术进步、产业结构演变、产业融合等进行理论探讨和实证研究,在此基础上提出引导消费需求升级、促进产业发展的政策建议。
Author Description

藏旭恒,男,1953年11月出生。南开大学经济学博士,现为山东大学二级教授、博士生导师,产业经济研究所所长,兼任《山东大学学报(哲社版)》主编、《产业经济评论》主编。南开大学、辽宁大学、中国海洋大学等兼职教授;中国经济发展研究会副会长。中国工业经济研究会副理事长、中华外国经济学说研究会理事;享受国务院政府特殊津贴专家,孙冶方经济科学奖获得者,山东省首届“泰山学者”特聘教授。曾为美国加州大学客座研究员、富布莱特访问学者,意大利帕维亚太学、英国伦敦大学、澳大利亚昆士兰大学访问教授(学者)。长期从事消费经济、产业经济、宏观经济和区域发展等领域的研究,先后主持国家和省部级重点科研项目十几项,其中教育部重大攻关项目两项。出版学术专著十多部,在《经济研究》等国内外学术刊物和国际学术会议上发表论文一百多篇。个人学术专著《中国消费函数分析》(上海三联书店出版社、上海人民出版社1994年联合出版,2003年第四次印刷)获全国“普通高等学校第二届人文社会科学研究成柴奖”二等奖,学术专著《居民资产与消费选择行为分析》(主笔,上海三联书店出版社、上海人民出版社2001年联合出版)获第十届孙冶方经济科学著作奖。
Catalogue

第一篇 研究背景:转型时期的特征
第一章 转型时期的经济社会背景变化
第一节 转型时期的市场经济发展与体制变迁
第二节 转型时期日益开放的中国经济
第三节 本章小结
第二章 转型时期的居民收入高速增长及收入差距
第一节 转型时期的居民收入增长
第二节 收入分配差异
第三节 转型时期行业收入差距
第四节 转型时期不同收入阶层居民的收入差距
第五节 中等收入阶层的形成与发展

第二篇 转型时期的居民消费需求升级
第三章 消费需求升级:基本框架
第一节 居民消费需求及其决定
第二节 居民消费需求结构
第三节 消费需求升级
第四章 转型时期居民消费需求升级:概述
第一节 转型时期居民消费需求升级:总量变化
第二节 居民消费需求升级:结构变化
第三节 居民消费需求升级:品质升级
第四节 对城镇居民消费需求升级的再考察:收入弹性方法
第五节 本章小结

第三篇 转型时期消费需求升级:主要消费需求分析
第五章 转型时期的居民消费需求升级:食品与衣着消费需求
第一节 转型时期的居民食品消费水平增长
第二节 城乡居民食品消费结构升级
第三节 城乡居民食品消费结构升级的实证分析
第四节 转型时期城乡居民衣着消费发展演变趋势
第五节 转型时期城乡居民衣着消费需求演变的动态分析
第六节 转型时期城乡居民衣着消费行为分析
第六章 转型时期居住消费需求升级
第一节 转型时期居住消费的发展动态与主要特征
第二节 转型时期影响居住消费的因素分析——中国居住消费函数构造
第三节 转型时期我国城乡居民居住消费收入弹性研究
第七章 转型时期居民交通通讯消费升级
第一节 转型期居民消费需求升级中交通通讯消费的趋势和特征
第二节 城乡居民交通通讯消费的收入弹性分析
第三节 交通类消费支出的收入和结构因素分解
第八章 转型时期居民教育文化娱乐及医疗保健消费需求升级研究
第一节 转型时期城乡居民教育文化娱乐消费发展动态与特征分析
……
第四篇 转型时期消费需求升级:开放经济影响、品质升级与跨期选择
第五篇 消费需求升级与产业发展的关联
第六篇 转型时期的产业发展
主要参考文献
Book Abstract

流动性约束消费函数有如下特征:一是如果消费者在某些时期持有零资产,那么在这些时期,其行为将会遵循拇指法则,即简单地让消费等于收入,消费的改变等于该期劳动收入的变化。二是流动性约束下的消费者行为可能与不受流动性限制但是有着明显预防性动机的消费者的行为相同。在实证研究中,如果只考虑预防性储蓄动机,就很容易掩盖流动性约束的影响。三是流动性约束的存在可能会打破标准模型的短期和长期行为预测之间的联系,即在一个没有流动性约束的模型中,消费者所选择的现期消费不仅能使现期的边际效用和下一期支出的预期边际效用均等化,而且也能使较远时期支出的预期边际效用均等化。对于受流动性限制的消费者来讲,其消费行为通常是“短视”的,他们仅仅在短期内熨平消费,而非长期。
(四)消费—储蓄理论在中国的应用
探讨中国消费问题的学者大都是在借鉴西方消费理论的基础上进行研究的。在现有文献中,凯恩斯(1936)提出的绝对收入假说主要被用来解释计划经济时期的居民消费储蓄行为,计量检验结果也证明效果很好。李子奈(1992)曾用1953~1980年的人均数据对城镇居民的消费函数做了估计,拟合度较高,从而说明相对收入假说也能较好地解释改革前居民的消费储蓄行为。对于霍尔(1978)的随机游走理论,臧旭恒(1994)曾经利用中国1978~1991年期间全国居民、城镇居民和农村居民消费、收入、消费物价指数进行过细致的检验,结果基本上拒绝了该假说在中国应用的可行性。对于应用广泛的莫迪利安尼和弗里德曼等提出的生命周期—持久收入模型,臧旭恒(1994)分别利用时间序列总量数据和家庭预算抽样调查数据进行了检验,其结论是生命周期—持久收入假说对1978年以后的中国的可应用性逐渐加大。贺菊煌(2005)在对生命周期假说的研究中,采用了数据模拟的方式,模拟结果是:(1)如果消费者没有预期到未来收入的增长,那么稳定状态下全社会的储蓄率将随收入增长率的提高而提高;(2)如果消费者预期到未来收入的增长,那么稳定状态下全社会的储蓄率不随收入增长率的提高而提高。
……

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