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Jingdong book

财务报表分析与证券投资

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财务报表分析与证券投资

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《财务报表分析与证券投资》本着价值投资的,从证券分析师的角度开展财务报表分析,并据此进行未来盈利预测和股票价值评估,在价值评估的基础上做出投资决策。《财务报表分析与证券投资》同进对盈余操纵和盈余的时间序列特征做了深入介绍。通过《财务报表分析与证券投资》的系统学习,读者可以建立一套基于Excel的股票价值评估体系,并写作一份符合投资界规范的分析师报告。《财务报表分析与证券投资》适用对象为对基于财务报表分析的证券投资感兴趣的人士,同时适合高等院校开设财务报表分析课程使用。
“姜老师的财务报表分析课程给了我一双投资分析的慧眼。”
杨德龙,南方基金研究部总监助理,高级投资策略分析师,北京大学光华管理学院2006届金融硕士毕业生,作者学生
“姜老师的课程对我理解财务报表信息在证券市场中的作用有很大帮助,是我取得Morgan Stanley工作机会的重要原因之一。”
涂舜德,Morgan Stanley(香港)投资银行部,北京大学光华管理学院2007届本科毕业生,作者学生
Content Description

《财务报表分析与证券投资》的出发点,即基于财务报表分析的股票价值评估与投资决策,把读者置身于证券分析师的角色以后,《财务报表分析与证券投资》的内容即围绕这个出发点展开。在这个出发点的框架下,财务报表分析的第一个核心问题是对企业未来盈利能力的预测。预测未来给本来“死板”的财务报表分析注入了新鲜的生命力。针对这个核心问题,《财务报表分析与证券投资》特别重视财务报表分析中两个比较重要的任务。第一,盈余操纵。准确的未来盈利预测必定是建立在准确的历史会计数据上的,而盈余操纵则导致作为预测基础的历史会计信息的可靠性下降,即历史信息没有真实反映企业过去的盈利能力。根据可靠性低的历史数据来预测未来必然造成较大的预测偏差。第二,会计数据特性。会计学研究已经发现会计数据有一些基本的时间序列特征。例如,企业的盈利能力(资产回报率、股东权益回报率等)具有均值回归的特征,即企业很难长期保持很高的盈利水平,竞争会导致
高盈利企业向行业平均水平靠拢;同样,企业也不会长期处于很低的盈利水平,管理层更换、行业竞争减弱会提高这些企业的盈利水平。这些特征,如果没有在未来盈利预测中加以注意,也会影响预测的准确性。因此,《财务报表分析与证券投资》将以重大篇幅探讨盈余操纵和会计数据特性对盈余预测的影响,以及如何调整它们对历史会计数据的影响,以使未来盈利水平预测更准确。财务报表分析的第二个核心问题是如何将对未来盈余的预测转换为对企业价值的评估。价值评估的模型很多,《财务报表分析与证券投资》将对这些模型加以介绍。更重要的,《财务报表分析与证券投资》将分析、比较这些模型之间的优点和缺点,并进而分析、讨论如何根据被分析企业的具体情况选择合适的定价模型。所以,《财务报表分析与证券投资》的章节都是围绕企业未来盈余预测和根据预测进行价值评估展开的。在第一章中,《财务报表分析与证券投资》介绍证券市场的背景和财务会计的基本特点及其在证券市场中的作用。这一章的目的是增加读者对证券市场及会计信息的了解,提高读者对财务报表分析的兴趣,尤其是给财务报表分析赋予一个目的,即证券投资。
Author Description

姜国华,美国加州大学伯克利分校会计学博士,北京大学光华管理学院会计学副教授、博士生导师,现任光华管理学院会计系副主任、MPACC中心执行主任、财务分析与投资理财研究中心执行主任。曾获得北京大学光华管理学院教学优秀奖和北京银行奖教金。研究成果发表在Review of Accounting Studies、Journal of Accounting and Public Policy、Jorunal of Business and Economic Statistics、International Jorunal of Accounting、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《会计研究》等国内外学术杂志上。
Catalogue

第一章会计信息与证券市场
第一节 引言
第二节企业、投资者与资本市场的关系
第三节 中国股票市场介绍
第四节企业定价的信息基础及会计信息在企业定价中的地位
第五节 证券分析师与分析师预测
第六节本书的定位、目标和内容结构
第七节本章小结
本章作业
第二章基于价值评估的资产负债表分析
第一节资产负债表介绍
第二节资产的价值决定因素
第三节会计的稳健性原则与资产的定义
第四节 资产项目的价值低估与隐性资产
第五节 负债项目的价值评估与隐性负债
第六节同比分析方法
第七节本章小结
本章作业
第三章 基于价值评估的损益表分析
第一节损益表介绍
第二节 现金制会计方法与应计制会计方法
第三节应计制会计方法与收入确认
第四节 配比会计原则、稳健性原则与费用确认
第五节支出的费用化与资产化
第六节证券分析师与盈余预测
第七节本章小结
本章作业
第四章基于价值评估的现金流量表分析
第一节现金流量表介绍
第二节准备现金流量表的意义
第三节 现金流量表和资产负债表、损益表的关系
第四节从现金流量表分析企业发展周期
第五节本章小结
本章作业
第五章基于价值评估的非财务信息分析
第一节非财务信息概述
第二节宏观信息
第三节行业信息
第四节企业非会计信息
第五节本章小结
本章作业
第六章盈利能力分析
第一节盈利能力分析基本框架概述
第二节资产回报率分析
第三节股东权益回报率分析
第四节 资产周转率和销售利润率分析
第五节我国上市公司盈利能力分析
第六节本章小结
本章作业
第七章投资风险分析
第一节什么是风险?
第二节证券投资风险与资本成本
第三节投资风险的衡量
第四节风险溢价和资本成本的衡量
第五节基于财务报表的风险分析
第六节本章小结
本章作业
第八章 盈余特征、盈余质量与盈余预测
第一节盈余特征与盈余质量问题概述
第二节应计盈余、现金盈余与盈余的持续性
第三节稳健性原则与盈余的持续性
第四节盈余的均值回转特征与盈余的持续性
第五节本章小结
……
第九章盈余操纵分析
第十章盈余预测
第十一章基于盈余预测的价值评估与投资决策
附录
附录一数量化证券投资策略设计
附录二上海申银万国证券宇通客车投资分析报告
附录三现值表和终值表
词汇表
后记
Book Abstract

第一章会计信息与证券市场
第二节 企业、投资者与资本市场的关系
从中国人寿A股上市前后股票定价中存在的巨大差异可以看出,评估企业的价值是一件相当困难的工作。这些著名的证券研究分析机构都拥有一批受过良好教育、享有长期从业经验的分析人员,这些分析人员以完备的历史数据库为基础,运用最前沿的证券定价理论和方法,对上市公司股票的价值做出评估和预测。但是,中国人寿和许多类似的例子表明,提高投资界对企业内在价值评估的准确性是我国资本市场发展中一个不可忽视的重要问题。
证券定价在资本市场的发展中具有举足轻重的作用。资本市场是一个资本需求者和资本供给者交汇的场所。一个有投资想法的企业或创业者,如果投资想法实现了,其生产和经营可以满足消费者需求,提高消费者的生活质量;同时,这个投资项目还可以为社会提供就业机会,为政府提供税收,从而促进经济的发展。但是,要使这个投资想法成为真正的投资行为,企业或创业者必须拥有足够的资金。当自有资金不能满足投资需要时,到资本市场上进行融资就成为必需的步骤。
在资本市场上,资本的需求者(企业或创业者,以下统称企业)向资本供给者(投资者)融资,实际上是在购买资本供给者的资金的使用权。如果是股权融资,购买的使用权理论上没有期限;而如果是债权融资,购买的使用权则有一定的使用期限,到期投资者要收回资金的使用权。
既然融资是一种购买行为,作为购买方的企业就必须向出售方支付资金使用权的价格,即我们常说的资本成本。根据传统的金融理论,资本成本是由投资者评估的企业的风险水平决定的。企业的风险水平越高,投资者出售资金使用权的价格越高,即企业支付的资本成本越高。企业的风险水平越低,其支付的资本成本越低。
Introduction

本书的出发点
两个朋友去森林里打猎。突然,一只黑熊从树丛中窜出来,开始追这两个人。A说:“快跑!”B说:“不用跑,跑也没用,我们不可能比黑熊跑得快。”A说:“我不需要比黑熊跑得快,我只需要比你跑得快。”
同样,基于财务报表分析的证券投资决策可以帮助你比其他投资者领先一步!
随着我国资本市场,尤其是股票市场的发展,财务报表信息在投资决策中的作用越来越重要。如何通过财务报表分析评估企业的价值,并进而把价值评估作为投资决策的基础,成为会计学、投资学科研、教学和实践的重要问题。
本书的目的是在这一方向上做出一定的努力和贡献。具体来讲,虽然会计信息的使用者类型有很多,但是本书的出发点是以其中的股权投资者作为服务对象。我们把财务报表分析统一在股权投资的分析框架之内,从理解、分析财务报表出发,到预测企业未来盈利水平,到利用未来盈利预测进行股票定价,最终做出投资决策。
基于财务报表分析的投资决策研究、教学和实践对提高我国证券投资行业的专业水平,对投资者降低投资风险、提高投资回报,对促进我国证券市场的效率都具有重要的意义。在证券市场上,和企业价值相关的信息来源多样、形式多样,但是,所有的价值相关信息最终要经过财务报表,通过会计盈余和现金流的信息表现出来。因此,财务报表信息是价值判断和投资决策的基础。
但是,财务报表体系是一套复杂的汇报系统。这个系统汇报信息的方法和效果不仅取决于一个国家的会计准则,还取决于一个国家的经济特征和会计从业人员的能力、习惯和判断方法。所以,没有系统的训练和实践,一个投资者正确、充分理解财务报表中揭示的价值信息是比较困难的。因此,证券分析师(se.cuzties analyst)成为证券市场发展的一个重要组成部分。

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欣叶 御大福 芋头麻薯 180g

周销量 600+

$1.66 $1.99 83折

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