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Jingdong book

煤炭资源优化配置理论与政策研究

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煤炭资源优化配置理论与政策研究

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以煤炭资源优化配置为研究对象,对煤炭资源优化配置问题进行梳理并做定量分析研究,构建煤炭资源市场价值的定价机制,将管理科学和系统科学的理论与方法应用到煤炭资源优化配置实践中,以促进适合中国特色社会主义市场经济运行的煤炭资源合理开发利用长效管理机制的建立与完善,为建立资源节约型和环境友好型的和谐社会提供科学决策理论依据,充实和拓展管理科学和系统科学的理论方法与应用范畴,具有重要理论与方法创新性和实践价值。
Author Description

赵国浩,浙江省东阳市人。上海交通人学管理科学与工程专业博士生毕业,现任山西财经大学副校长、教授、博士生导师。现从事管理系统工程、工商管理、管理统计理论与方法等方面研究。兼任美国威斯康星大学和匹兹堡大学客座教授,德国埃森经济与管理应川技术大学兼职教授,全罔高等财经院校教育学会管理科学专业委员会主任,中国社会经济系统工程学会副理事长,中国优选法统筹法与经济数学学会理事,中国管理科学与工程学会理事,中国管理科学学会理事,山西省系统工程学会副理事长,山西省管理科学学会副理事长,山西省教授协会副会长,山西省企业文化研究会常务副理事长,山两省科技创新成果应用协会副会长,山两省“新世纪学术技术带头人333人才工程”省级人选,山西省“五一劳动奖章”获得者,山西省科教兴晋突出贡献专家,山西省优秀青年科技工作者、杰出管理学者,山西省重点建设学科“管理科学与工程”学科带头人,山西省委联系的高级咨询专家,山西省政府决策咨询委员会专家。曾主持国家自然科学基金项目“煤炭资源优化配置的理论与政策研究”和“煤炭资源价格形成机制的政策体系研究”、山西省自然科学基金项目“系统工程理论方法及其在煤炭资源管理应用中的基础研究”等省部级项目37项,研究成果获山西省社会科学研究优秀成果一等奖1项、二等奖2项、三等奖1项,获山西省科学技术奖“科学技术进步类”二等奖、山西省高等学校科学技术奖“科学技术进步类”一等奖各1项,获山西省人民政府省级教学成果二等奖1项,获山西省高校人文社会科学研究优秀成果一等奖2项、二等奖1项。共发表学术论文106篇,出版学术专著16部,获省部级优秀成果奖28项。
Catalogue

第一章 煤炭资源需求预测模型研究
一、绪论
二、BP神经网络的一般原理及改进
三、煤炭资源需求分析
四、基于MATLAB的BP神经网络煤炭需求预测模型
五、本章小结

第二章 煤炭资源开采规模优化研究
一、绪论
二、煤炭资源管理相关理论综述
三、煤炭资源开采的效应分析
四、地区煤炭资源开采规模的博弈分析
五、煤炭资源开采规模的影响因素分析
六、煤炭资源开采规模优化模型
七、煤炭资源可持续开采利用对策建议
八、本章小结

第三章 煤炭资源承载力评价及对策研究
一、绪论
二、煤炭资源承载力及其理论基础
三、中国煤炭资源开采利用现状与存在的问题
四、煤炭资源承载力评价指标体系
五、提升煤炭资源承载力的对策和建议
六、本章小结

第四章 煤炭资源综合利用系统建模及对策研究
一、绪论
二、煤炭资源综合利用现状分析
三、煤炭资源综合利用系统分析
四、山西省煤炭资源综合利用对策研究
五、本章小结

第五章 基于可持续发展的山西煤炭企业发展模式研究
一、绪论
二、可持续发展理论综述
三、山西煤炭企业发展现状分析
四、山西煤炭企业走可持续发展道路的战略定位
五、山西煤炭企业可持续发展模式构建
六、山西煤炭企业走可持续发展道路的政策建议
七、本章小结

第六章 山西省煤炭运销集团竞争力研究
一、绪论
二、企业竞争力及相关理论
三、山西省煤炭运销集团竞争力现状分析
四、山西省煤炭运销集团企业竞争力培育对策
五、本章小结
附录
附录1煤炭资源综合开发利用对策研究
附录2基于可持续发展煤炭工业发展对策研究
附录3变权组合预测模型在中国煤炭需求预测中的应用
附录4煤炭资源资产化管理研究
附录5Astudyon Developing Routeof Energyand Environment
inChina
参考文献
Book Abstract

国外真正对能源问题进行系统研究,始于20世纪70年代。70年代石油危机后,因机械工业的迅速发展,能源紧缺才日益表现出来,能源在经济系统中的重要作用才被充分关注。国内有关能源消费的理论研究,比国外起步晚了10年左右,始于20世纪80年代。能源需求预测在实际应用中有多种方法,比较常用的有以下几种:
1.弹性系数法
弹性系数法是根据国内生产总值增长速度与能源消费增长之间的关系来预测能源消费总量。
2.回归模型法
建立的回归模型,有一元、二元和多元回归模型。
3.投入产出法
投入产出法是20世纪30年代提出的经济数量分析方法。其主要内容是编制棋盘式的投人产出表和建立相应的线性代数方程体系,构成一个模拟现实的国民经济结构和社会产品再生产的经济数学模型,综合分析和确定国民经济各部门间错综复杂的联系和再生产的重要比例关系。
4.灰色预测模型法
灰色预测模型的概念是中国学者邓聚龙教授于1982年首先提出的,并建立了灰色系统理论。
5.BP神经网络预测法
BP神经网络是目前发展的一种神经网络。它由输入、输出以及一个或多个隐层组成。有关理论已经证明了任何一个非线性映射都可以用一个三层前向网络很好的逼近。
6.MedPro终端能源需求模型法
MedPro终端能源需求模型是由法国专家开发的,它是在MEDEE能源需求模型的基础上开发的,在计算机窗口方式下使用的。
7.分部门能源消费需求预测模型法
该模型是为了直接预测在一定经济发展速度以及一定技术进步条件下的能源需求量而建立的。
国外一些学者还做了关于煤炭等能源方面的其他研究。利用时间序列建模技术研究了韩国煤炭消费和经济增长之间的因果关系,结果发现煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。Kulshreshtha和Parikh利用向量自回归模型研究了印度四个主要耗能部门煤炭需求与价格和收人变量之间的关系。
Introduction

能源是人类赖以生存繁衍、社会得以繁荣进步的重要物质基础,也是国民经济发展和人民生活水平提高的重要基础资源。中国是煤炭资源大国,煤炭的储量居世界第一,石油和天然气储量相对不足,这种“富煤,少气,贫油”的能源结构决定了煤炭资源在中国国民经济中占有重要的战略地位。2007年中国一次能源生产中,原煤的产量占76.6 9/6;2008年占70.2 %。煤炭资源作为中国能源安全的基石与支柱,在中国社会经济发展中发挥了巨大的作用。而且,伴随中国经济的增长,工业化和城镇化的快速发展,在今后很长一段时间内,这种局面不会有大的改变。
然而,在利用这些储量丰富的煤炭资源过程中,中国低利用率、低回采率的现象一直比较严重,与经济社会可持续发展的要求相悖。随着国民经济的持续快速增长,一方面会造成对能源需求的日益增加;另一方面则是煤炭资源作为自然界中一种有限、稀缺的可耗竭性资源,其不断的开采利用无疑会导致最终可采储量为零,从理论上讲无法实现可持续利用。因此,研究如何使煤炭资源尽可能延长可开采期,如何实现煤炭资源的优化配置,尽可能满足较长时期内人类经济社会发展的需要有着重要的意义。
煤炭资源优化配置问题是管理科学和经济学中的一类重要的最优化问题。目前,中国煤炭资源在实行有偿使用试点过程中,资源的配置方式仍然是以政府为主导的计划经济手段,如何在煤炭资源的配置中更大地发挥市场的作用,实现煤炭资源的最优化配置,是值得深入研究和探讨的重大问题。

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