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看懂世界经济的第一本书

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看懂世界经济的第一本书

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当下,我们每一个人的生活都发生了重大变化:就业者发现工作岗位变少了,竞争更激烈了;贸易商发现生意越来越难做;房产商发现房子不好卖了;投资者因为股票不断下跌蒙受损失;决策者发现经济增长速度下滑了,能出台的经济刺激计划余地变小了……大家难免感叹:难道是好日子到了头?难免追问:这一切的一切究竟是怎么发生的呢?有人说,是华尔街金融家的冒险游戏,把全世界都拖人了经济的冬天;有人说,是美国为了自身的核心利益,滥用霸主的权利,用美元绑架了世界经济;有人说,世界经济政治发展不平衡,经济全球化的进程中早就埋下了危机的种子;有人说,世界经济本身就遵循着繁荣-衰退-萧条-复苏的周期定律……答案五花八门。要想获得比较客观公正的答案,就需要看懂世界经济,弄清其来龙去脉。
为了帮助人们全面系统地看懂世界经济这盘大棋局,我们特编写了这部《看懂世界经济的第一本书》。《看懂世界经济的第一本书》将当今世界格局及其历史渊源娓娓道来,并从源起、主导因素、影响范围以及未来走势等几个方面,进行了深入细致的剖析和介绍,希望能使读者掌握看懂世界经济的理论、方法,能客观公正地看待当下经济形势、社会热点。
通过阅读《看懂世界经济的第一本书》,读者能看清各类波谲云诡的经济现象背后所隐藏的真相,了解世界经济、中国经济发展脉络和未来走向,以便更有效地规避风险,把握机会,找准自身的位置,作出有利于自身的抉择。
Catalogue

第一章 世界经济现在走到了哪里
世界经济持续低迷,经济可能二次探底
全球经济结构失衡与深刻调整
债字当头,财政恶化成发达国家普遍难题
全球流动性泛滥,新兴经济体持续通胀
金融危机系统性风险尚未根本消除
发达国家结构性失业问题难解

第二章 当前世界经济的格局
美国经济:不稳定的复苏
欧元区经济:复苏中蕴藏不确定性
日本经济:延续危机后的增长周期
俄罗斯经济:复苏道路仍不平坦
拉美经济:快速复苏
非洲经济:回升向好
中东经济:步人复苏阶段

第三章 世界经济发展的新特征
信息革命:世界成为“地球村”
金融全球化:国际金融和国内金融界限模糊
国际直接投资与跨国公司的大发展
区域经济集团化:区域一体化组织大发展
合作与共赢:国际组织的大发展
市场经济成为涵盖整个世界的经济体制
资本流动已成全球化趋势

第四章 谁都逃不掉的通货膨胀
通货膨胀:不可避免的经济现象
通胀在敲门:通胀预期形成的前因后果
通胀效应:通货膨胀带来的财富再分配
深入通胀的内核:剖析通胀产生的原因
美元大泛滥:通胀,让全世界人埋单
发达国家如何应对通胀:美国的“放任”策略
欧元区:政府对通胀“高度警惕”
日本:通胀与紧缩并存之下“心有余而力不足”
亚太地区:通胀重压促使“加息潮”出现
德国:超级通货膨胀思考
通胀危害:动荡与冲击随之而来
治理通胀:各国政府的不同措施

第五章 欧债的成因、酝酿与历史演进
危机根源:统一货币与分散财政制度
欧债的爆发:背负巨额贷款而无力偿还的希腊
葡萄牙:主权债务信用恶化或成下一个希腊
西班牙经济危机:贸易大幅缩水
爱尔兰:经济局势骤然紧张
法国艾菲尔铁塔笼罩阴霾之中
意大利:挤入全球最高赤字国
7500亿救市“强心剂”不惜一切捍卫欧元
德国引擎:危机中能否扮演救世主的角色
中国:债务危机升级,将会“受灾”

第六章 诸元之战:汇率背后的国家博弈
卢布外交:苏联经济援助的真实目的
世纪豪赌:英镑阻击战
亚洲货币绞杀战:中国未来的寓言
狙击欧洲货币的“危机弧形带”
……
第七章 热钱战争:保卫财富,共反热钱
第八章 风雨飘摇的全球股市
第九章 悄然上演的黄金储备战
第十章 产业转移的第四次浪潮
第十一章 全球化进程中的贸易冲突与合作
第十二章 跨国公司占领全球市场“制高点”
第十三章 南北失衡的粮食问题
第十四章 石油变局下的世界新秩序
第十五章 大势所趋的低碳经济模式
第十六章 资源为王的大国追逐战
第十七章 世界能源的现状、危机与开发利用
第十八章 新世纪的新型战争
第十九章 世界经济大趋势将去向何处
Book Abstract

金融危机系统性风险尚未根本消除从直接原因看,世界性的金融危机是由于美国房地产价格下跌波及到金融市场,导致金融机构持有的大量次贷支持证券大幅缩水,但问题的背后是在当前的国际货币体系和经济结构下所形成的全球经济金融结构失衡,以及建立在这个失衡基础上的华尔街投行模式的制度性缺陷。
《断层线》作者借用了地质学的一个概念:断层线。地震往往是沿着断层线爆发的,因此,沿着断层线的痕迹去追溯,可以为把握金融危机及其演变提供一个新的视角。
作者对于2008年的金融危机并没有一个单一的解释,而是发达国家贫富悬殊与政治压力之下的过度宽松房贷政策、新兴国家出口导向政策与发达国家过度消费、发达国家与新兴国家在金融监管上的尺度不一以及不当的政府干预措施等因素形成了多条“断层线”,这些深层次的不平衡相互作用,阻碍了各自功能的正常发挥,并由此打破了各国为抑制金融膨胀而建立的制衡体系,在积累了巨大的泡沫之后,整个世界金融体系便出现了深度的调整。
作者从社会变迁、政治制度、世界经济一体化、国际货币体系等宏观视角入手,层层推进,并结合对不同体系的微观分析,尝试从系统的角度道出金融危机的来龙去脉和演进根源。
作者认为,新世纪以来,在计算机和通信技术的推动下,以美国为代表的发达国家出现了大量结构性失业现象,导致收入水平的严重不平衡。在政治压力之下,政客们极力推动以扩大住房信贷为代表的宽松信贷政策,以使低收入阶层提前消费,改善生活质量,其后果就是助推了房地产市场的巨大泡沫,构成了第一个“断层线”。
与发达国家过度消费相对应的是新兴市场国家的过度储蓄,由于内部市场狭小。新兴国家对出口型企业的补贴政策会抑制家庭消费,使国内市场受到进一步压制。其巨额的外汇储备又只能以低廉的资金价格流回发达国家,助推了资产泡沫,这是造成金融危机的第二个“断层线”。
在一些发达国家,社会保障体系薄弱,加上较高的失业率,使得政府倾向于制定减税、增加支出、降息等宽松的经济政策,一方面造成了巨额的财政赤字,另一方面推高了资产价格,形成了第三个“断层线”。
在极度宽松的货币环境下,加上金融自由化浪潮下的监管放松,使得金融机构的道德风险彰显,倾向于大规模扩张业务,制造了大量的衍生证券,而各国廉价的资金涌入美国又进一步刺激了以次级贷款为基础的金融衍生品的交易扩张,这是第四个“断层线”。
作者所谓的断层线就是金融危机的系统性分析。
过去10年,随着经济金融全球化和资本流动速度的不断加快,商业银行、投资银行、保险公司、养老基金、对冲基金、资产管理公司等众多金融市场参与主体相互作用,形成了一个环环相扣的复杂金融市场网络,不同投资主体持有同质的投资工具。而随着与次贷相关的结构化金融衍生产品市场的兴起,上述市场参与主体的联动效应进一步增强。
次贷危机之所以最终发展成为全球性的金融危机,不仅是因为相关金融机构积极参与结构化金融衍生产品市场,而且与金融机构相互影响、相互作用导致风险在金融市场网络中的传播放大密不可分。
在2008年中,美国的房利美和房地美公司、AIG(美国国际集团)以及其他一些重要金融机构濒于倒闭,造成很高的系统性风险。
……
Introduction

世界经济今天走到了一个非常关键的时刻,某些问题的严重性跟我们过去30年中所碰到的难度是不同的。自2008年以来,经济危机带来的世界各国的政治动荡加剧,世界经济大势风起云涌。当今的世界格局与未来的发展趋势都不容乐观。发达经济体债务危机一波未平一波再起,特别是欧债危机久拖却无治理良策。美国的主权信用评级下调,给世界经济缓慢的复苏进程带来许多不确定性。尽管中国经济增长仍然保持着较高的速度,但令人不乐观的世界经济毫无疑问使其下行的风险增加。从微观面看,我们每一个人的生活都发生了重大变化:就业者发现工作岗位变少了,竞争更激烈了;贸易商发现生意越来越难做;房产商发现房子不好卖了;投资者因为股票不断下跌蒙受损失;决策者发现经济增长速度下滑了,能出台的经济刺激计划余地变小了……大家难免感叹:难道是好日子到了头?难免追问:这一切的一切究竟是怎么发生的呢?
有人说,是华尔街金融家的冒险游戏,把全世界都拖入了经济的冬天;有人说,是美国为了自身的核心利益,滥用霸主的权利,用美元绑架了世界经济;有人说,世界经济政治发展不平衡,经济全球化的进程中早就埋下了危机的种子;有人说,世界经济本身就遵循着繁荣——衰退——萧条——复苏的周期定律……答案五花八门,使本次经济危机成为了一场充满悬疑的罗生门。要想获得比较客观公正的答案,就需要看懂世界经济,弄清其来龙去脉。尤其要弄明白我们中国在世界经济格局中所处的位置,所面临的机遇与挑战。
目前全球经济形势依然严峻,世界各国经济的运行充满了很多不确定性因素。我们读懂世界经济就意味着读懂我们自己的过去、现在和未来。对于当今世界经济格局及其来龙去脉,不仅我们的政府官员和经济学家需要弄明白,我们正在奔向世界各地的商人,还有我们千千万万怀抱着理想的年轻人,同样希望弄明白。进而言之,所有关心自己前途和命运的中国人,都希望弄明白。因为这件事情和我们每个人都息息相关。政府官员需要借鉴世界各国的经验与教训,提高经济学素养,维护改革开放的果实。而对于年轻的创业者而言,看懂世界经济,了解当前形势,有助于自身找准正确的创业方向,抓住创业路途上珍贵的机遇,在世界范围内学习优秀企业和成功创业者的商务模式和前沿理念,形成自己的法则,让自己和企业保有战斗力。任何和国计民生相关的事情,都是老百姓茶余饭后的谈资。世界经济的大乾坤里,也装着普通老百姓的小世界。世界经济的风吹草动,会通过各种途径影响我国的经济格局,进而影响老百姓的衣食住行。工资、学费、房价、医药费等的涨跌均牵动着老百姓敏感的神经,甚至操纵着民众的喜怒哀乐。管中窥豹,我们从物价、汇率变化、利息调整中可以反推出中国经济的发展方向,甚至可以把出世界经济的脉动。
世界是平的,作为地球村的村民,经济全球化浪潮让我们每个人都无法置身于世界经济大局之外。然而,经济变局宏大艰深,国家博弈真假难辨,令人眼花缭乱。全球经济向何处去,中国经济未来发展格局如何,骨子里积淀着家国情怀的中国人渴望对此有清晰和深刻的了解,也希望在后金融时代守住自身的财富,创造更多的财富。为了帮助人们全面系统地看懂世界经济这盘大棋局,我们特编写了这部《看懂世界经济的第一本书》。本书将当今世界格局及其历史渊源娓娓道来,并从源起、主导因素、影响范围以及未来走势等几个方面,进行了深入细致的剖析和介绍,希望能使读者掌握看懂世界经济的理论、方法,能客观公正地看待当下经济形势、社会热点。本书适合所有对经济热点问题感兴趣的读者阅读。通过阅读此书,读者能看清各类波谲云诡的经济现象背后所隐藏的真相,了解世界经济、中国经济
发展脉络和未来走向,以便更有效地规避风险,把握机会,找准自身的位置,做出有利于自身的抉择。

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    2-Day Express (Includes Alaska & Hawaii) starts at $19.99.

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Yami Cross-store Free Shipping over $69
Yami 30-days Return

Yami-China FC

Yami has a consolidation warehouse in China which collects multiple sellers’ packages and combines to one order. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to your door. Cross-store free shipping over $69.

Return Policy

You may return products within 30 days upon receiving the products. Sellers take responsibilities for any wrong shipment or missing items. Packing needs to be unopened for any other than quality issues return. We promise to pack carefully, but because goods are taking long journey to destinations, simple damages to packaging may occur. Any damages not causing internal goods quality problems are not allowed to return. If you open the package and any quality problem is found, please contact customer service within three days after receipt of goods.

Shipping Information

Yami Consolidation Service Shipping Fee $9.99(Free shipping over $69)

Sellers in China will ship their orders within 1-2 business days once the order is placed. Packages are sent to our consolidation warehouse in China and combined there. Our Yami consolidation warehouse will directly ship the packages to you via UPS. The average time for UPS to ship from China to the United States is about 10 working days and it can be traced using the tracking number. Due to the pandemic, the delivery time may be delayed by about 5 days. The package needs to be signed by the guest. If the receipt is not signed, the customer shall bear the risk of loss of the package.

Sold by JD@CHINA

Service Guarantee

Free shipping over 69
Genuine guarantee

Shipping

Yami Consolidated Shipping $9.99(Free shipping over $69)


Seller will ship the orders within 1-2 business days. The logistics time limit is expected to be 7-15 working days. In case of customs clearance, the delivery time will be extended by 3-7 days. The final receipt date is subject to the information of the postal company.

Yami Points information

All items are excluding from any promotion or points events on Yamibuy.com

Return Policy

You may return product within 30 days upon receiving the product. Items returned must be new in it's original packing, including the original invoice for the purchase. Customer return product at their own expense.

Yami

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About the brand

Jingdong book

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About the brand

Jingdong book