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股票投资百年经典译丛:道氏理论(专业解读版)

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道氏理论是道琼斯公司创始人之一查尔斯·道和《华尔街日报》资深编辑威廉·皮特·汉密尔顿市场智慧的结晶。罗伯特·雷亚作为道氏理论的研究者和推广者,他将二位大师的思想与文章加以梳理,在努力实践道氏理论的同时,结合其在股市的操作解读了道氏理论。本书将道氏理论化繁为简,将其中的核心观点一一摘出,使三大假设、三大公理、五个定理清晰化。尽管查尔斯·道始终强调其理论并不用于预测股市,但经过演化的理论仍对实践操作有所帮助,其中精髓更是被誉为“股市技术分析的鼻祖”。
当然,股市技术分析一直在演化,如果读者不能完全赞同罗伯特·雷亚的解读,本书下篇还提供了原载于《华尔街日报》和《巴伦周刊》中有关道琼斯平均价格指数的分析文章。
《道氏理论(专业解读版)》是初入股市、希望了解股市运作基本规律的读者的必读书,也是道氏理论爱好者的必藏之作。
Author Description

罗伯特·雷亚(Robert Rhea), 美国20世纪初期著名的股票市场技术分析及交易专家,被盛誉为伟大的道氏理论集大成者,解读道氏指数和股票成交量的应用大师。雷亚为人谦逊,受人尊敬,在生命的最后十年,雷亚身受疾病袭扰。长期卧床,可依旧坚持股票交易。直到1939年辞世。
雷亚将道氏理论应用于长线投资与短线操作之中,曾成功指出了美国1929-1932年股市大崩盘后的底部,为后人所叹服。在他真正掌握道氏理论之后,并未完全用于自己操作,而是将自己的理解和认识写下来,与大众分享,如今《道氏理论》成为了经典投资指南。
Catalogue

上篇 道氏理论

第1 章一个理论的演变/ 2
道氏理论的基础原理十分简单, 完全来自于实践经验。

第2 章汉密尔顿先生解读的道氏理论/ 10
查尔斯·道和汉密尔顿给出了一张能预测股市“ 天气”阴晴变化的晴雨表, 这张晴雨表便被称为道氏理论。股票交易者正确阅读股市晴雨表的能力就像船长们要时刻关注航行晴雨表一样至关重要。

第3 章人为操纵/ 18
平均价格指数的日间波动很有可能受人为操控, 次级运动也会受到相对有限的影响, 但是市场的主要运动趋势是绝对不会被人为影响的。

第4 章平均价格指数反映一切/ 21
道琼斯工业和铁路平均价格指数的日收盘价格波动反映了那些涉足金融事务的人们关于希望、失望与知识的综合判断。正因为如此, 未来事件的影响(不可抗力因素除外) 总是能通过预期的运动被正确地反映出来。例如, 通过平均价格指数可以快速评估出火灾、地震等灾害所带来的损失。

第5 章道氏理论并非真理/ 28
道氏理论不是可以击败市场的不败体系。投资者若想成功地将道氏理论运用到投资中需要严肃认真地钻研, 并且毫偏见地总结收集来的证据, 绝不能让主观愿望超越理性思考。

第6 章道氏理论的三种运动/ 36
平均价格指数包括三种运动, 这三种运动或许会存在于同一时间。首先, 最为重要的就是主要趋势运动: 股市整体向上或向下的运动, 也就是众所周知的牛市或熊市, 其持续时间或达数年之久。其次, 最具欺骗性的是次级运动: 牛市中的重要回调, 或是熊市中的反弹行情, 这些反应通常会持续三周至数月的时间。第三, 也是最不重要的运动———平均价格指数的日间波动。

第7 章主要运动/ 38
主要运动是股市整体的基本趋势, 也就是众所周知的牛市或者熊市,其持续时间从少于一年到数年不等。正确判断主要运动的方向, 是成功操作的关键因素。目前, 人们还没有找到可以预测主要运动持续时间长短的方法。

第8 章熊市/ 40
熊市是伴随着重要反弹且长期整体向下的运动, 这种运动直到股票价格彻底消化了那些最糟糕的情况才会结束。熊市由三个主要阶段构成:第一阶段, 代表人们在价格飞涨时购入股票后希望的破灭; 第二阶段,反映了人们由于经济萧条和收入减少而开始抛售股票; 第三阶段, 是那些坚持将自己的部分资产变现的人们, 漠视股票的实际价值而低价抛售掉那些优质证券。

第9 章牛市/ 47
牛市是指整体向上的运动, 期间伴随着次级回调反应。牛市的持续时间往往在两年以上。在此期间, 由于商业条件改善和投资活动增加,使得投资购买股票的需求量不断增加。基于此原因, 股票价格也会直线攀升。牛市通常有三个阶段: 第一阶段, 人们对未来的经济发展恢复信心; 第二阶段, 股票价格对已知的企业收入改善情况所产生的反应; 第三阶段, 投机猖獗、通货膨胀显著的时期———这是一段股票靠人们的希望与期盼飞涨的阶段。

第10 章次级运动/ 54
为了便于讨论次级运动, 我们把牛市中的重大下跌及熊市中的重大上涨定义为次级运动, 其持续时间通常是三周到数月不等。次级运动的价格一般会回调到前一个主要运动终止后价格变化的33% ~ 66%。这些反应常常让人们误以为是主要趋势发生了变化, 原因显而易见, 牛市第一阶段的价格运动, 与被证实的熊市中的次级反应总是有巧合的相似性;相反, 熊市中, 顶峰后的回调与牛市的次级反应也十分相似。

第11 章日间波动/ 68
仅根据一天的平均价格指数运动来进行推论, 几乎都会得出误导性的结论。只有在市场形成了“ 线态窄幅盘整”时, 推论才会存在一些价值。不管怎样, 大家都应该记录并研究平均价格指数的每日走势, 因为一系列的日间运动走势图最终通常都会发展为具有预测价值又易于识别的形态。

第12 章两种平均价格指数必须相互确认/ 71
投资者始终要将铁路与工业股票平均价指数的运动一并考虑, 只有在一种平均价格指数被另一种确认后, 才可以得出可靠的结论。基于一种平均指数波动得出的结论, 如果没有被另一种平均指数确认过, 那么这样的结论肯定会对投资者产生误导。

第13 章判断趋势/ 79
连续的价格回升超过前期的高点, 伴随接下来的下跌能在前期低点上结束, 这就是牛市的信号; 反之, 如果价格的回升没能超越前期的高点, 并且随后下跌的低点比先前的低点更低, 那么这就是熊市。这样的推论十分有助于评估次级运动, 也是预测市场主要运动恢复、继续或变化的重中之重。为了便于讨论, 价格的恢复或下跌被定义为: 一个或多个交易日导致任意一种平均价格指数超过3% 的净逆转。这类运动, 只有在两种平均价格指数互相确认下, 才有权威。不过, 这一确认不必非要在同一天发生。

第14 章线态窄幅盘整/83
所谓的线态窄幅盘整, 是指一个价格运动超过两三周, 甚至更长的时间。在此期间, 两种平均价格指数的价格波动大约在5% 的范围内。这样的运动代表市场不是正在吸筹, 就是正在派发。如果两种平均价格指数在线态窄幅盘整的限度上同时上涨, 则表明市场处于吸筹阶段, 并且预示着价格会变得更高; 相反, 如果在线态窄幅盘整的限度下同时下跌,价格则必定会继续下跌。如果一种平均价格指数还没得到另一种的确认就妄下结论, 那么这一结论通常也是不正确的。

第15 章量价关系/ 90
一个处于超买状态的市场, 就会在上升中表现迟缓, 而在下跌中表现活跃; 相反, 当市场超卖时, 下跌的趋势就会变得迟缓, 而上升则表现为活跃。牛市通常在过度活跃的时期终止, 并且开始相对缓和的交易。

第16 章双重顶和双重底/ 98
双重顶和双重底对预测价格运动的价值并不大, 并且时常会使人迷惑。

第17 章论个股/ 101
美国大企业所有活跃且发行广泛的股票, 一般都会随平均价格指数上涨及下跌。但是, 股票种类多种多样, 任意一支个股反映出来的情况,都可能会与平均价格指数大相径庭。

第18 章论投机/ 103
投机既是一门艺术, 也是一门科学。

第19 章股市哲学/ 110
汉密尔顿有一个诀窍, 用多年对华尔街股市交易的观察所积累的市场智慧, 辅以简练的评论, 使技术分析变得十分有趣。

下篇 有关道氏理论的评述文章

第20 章原载于《华尔街日报》和《巴伦周刊》的专栏/ 118
Book Abstract

在接近低点的时候,成交量却在稳步上升。工业股票在6月4日反弹到134.73点,铁路股票也在随后的一天反弹到76.17点。然后,在6月6日,工业股票再次下跌到129.91点,铁路股票下跌到73.72点,随后工业股票和铁路股票又分别在6月13日反弹到137.03点和79.65点。到了6月19日,两种股票的价格依次是130.01点和74.71点。此时,市场发生了最后一次反弹,6月27日达到了高点,工业股票上涨到156.93点,铁路股票则上涨到88.31点。成交量显示交易在到达顶峰前经过了数天的减少。这次反应共持续了4周时间,以2月24日下跌为基准,工业股票和铁路股票分别反弹了45%和48%。
牛市中的次级运动有一个固有的特点,那就是回调到最低点的时候,一般会伴随着数字庞大的交易量。然后,市场会出现一两天的上涨,这时交易量保持放大或者稍有下跌。接下来又是下跌,但是并没有跌破前期的低点。如果成交量在这次下跌中减少,那么就可以假定次级运动已经完成,牛市趋势即将恢复。假如这次次级运动是在正常波动范围内进行,其回调范围应该是前期重大次级回调后主要运动范围的33%~66%。
关于次级运动的波动幅度分析将在本章后面的部分为大家说明。
这里应该特别强调一点,每位交易者在观察次级运动时,都务必要考虑交易量。成交量并不像其他特征那样具有统一性,但是当你尝试寻找在牛市中安全购入股票的时机,或者在熊市下跌时卖出股票的时机的时候,上述提到的考虑就变得十分有价值了。
……

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Jingdong book