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华尔街七大投资法则

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Jingdong book

华尔街七大投资法则

Name: 华尔街七大投资法则
Brand: Jingdong book
SKU: 3111009821
Price: 43.11 USD
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“5月清仓离场。”
这是一句古老的谚语，但是这个华尔街的谚语今天仍然适用。在2008年开始的市场下跌中，它一再的发挥着作用。在《华尔街的七大投资法则》中，萨姆·斯托瓦尔，首席投资策略分析师和股票市场专家，为您呈现了七个类似的谚语。这些谚语不但包含着持久的真理，而且也可以作为很好的投资策略。
在这本有趣的指导书中，斯托瓦尔用历史事实和他自身的经验检验了这七条谚语。例如，当你要组建一个投资组合时，你应该“追随赢家，避开输家”吗？当然。斯托瓦尔写道：“平均而言，‘赢家’投资组合战胜市场的概率为2/3。绝大多数年份中----每10年中有7年----‘赢家’投资组合会战胜‘输家’投资组合。“
其他饱含哲理的华尔街谚语包括：
·1月定全年
·不要抓狂，要均衡
·别和美联储对抗
·牛市总在某处
为了支持他的结论，斯托瓦尔用详细的回测结果和根据数十年的股票市场数据而编制的图表证实了他的敏锐的洞察力。
《华尔街的七个投资规则》是一本生动有趣的书，用较短的篇幅提供了丰富的智慧，并证明了投资方面的书籍在富有教育性的同时，也能富有趣味性。

Content Description

《华尔街七大投资法则》介绍了华尔街的七个投资法则，作者结合标准普尔公司三十多年的股市研究数据，并以标普500指数为基准点，逐一验证并完善了这七个投资法则。同时，作者还针对七个投资法则分别给出了投资组合，以便读者在实际操作中参考与运用。

Author Description

萨姆·斯托瓦尔，标准普尔公司股票研究部首席投资策略分析师，标普投资策略委员会主席，专注于市场历史和市场价值方面。他还是标普行业投资指南和网站上“斯托瓦尔行业观察”专栏的作者。

Catalogue

前言
致谢
序成功投资的关键
法则 1 追随赢家，避开输家
法则 2 1 月定全年
法则 3 5 月清仓离场
法则 4 华尔街没有免费的午餐（是吗，谁说的？）
法则 5 牛市总在某处
法则 6 不要抓狂，要均等
法则 7 别和美联储对抗
总结法则排名 129 词汇表

Introduction

暴跌之后，勿失猛涨
从 2007 年 10 月 9 日到 2008 年 11 月 20 日，标普 500 的市值亏损了 52%。因此，很多投资者就像披头士乐队的歌曲《昨天》中的歌词一样：“突然间，我已不及过去的一半。”他们还在考虑是否应该将已所剩无几的股票卖掉，再不踏入股市半步。我的建议是：“不要像查理·布朗 ?一样。”不是因为我想要你买这本书，而是因为：
①很少有人能预测股市底部——我也不能；
②新一轮牛市的开启往往迅速而猛烈，仅 40 天即可重拾整个熊市平均 1/3 的跌幅，且通常仅第一年就能涨回 46%；
③本书中的法则过去经常跑赢市场的涨幅，有些法则战胜市场的比率超过了 2/3。
换句话说，我不愿你错过暴跌之后的猛涨。我不愿当你的船正在入港时，你却身在机场。你的船即为熊市见底后股价的快速回升，
它将帮助你的投资组合重新达到盈亏平衡，这通常要五年多一点的
? 查理·布朗（Charlie Brown）是美国著名漫画家查尔斯·舒尔茨的漫画《花生（Peanuts）》中的主角，史努比的主人，经常因运气差而遭遇各种失败。
时间。而且，许多华尔街的法则在历史上都缩短了该恢复周期所需的时间。
糟糕透顶
让我们来直面它吧。2007—2008 年的熊市绝对是一场泡沫全面破灭的风暴——涉及大宗商品、新兴市场、对冲基金和房地产。但是，不要因为没有预见到这次崩溃或因自己投资组合遭受的失败而沮丧。除非将自己的投资组合大比例投资于现金或熊市基金，否则其他人的投资组合表现得可能和你的一样差。
当标准普尔 500 指数（标普 500）的市值亏损超过 50% 时，表 P.1 显示我们无处躲藏。标普 500 涉及的十个产业全部价格下跌，且金融产业暴跌 74%。另外，除了 3 个行业外，标普 500 的其他
127 个行业在这 13 个月中全部下跌。出人意料的是，从 2007 年 10 月到 2008 年 11 月，美国股市下跌的幅度小于其他发达国家股市及新兴市场股市的下跌的幅度。
但你知道吗？价格的这些变动是在熊市中的典型表现。当然，这次熊市的原因和速度是史无前例的。在 13 个月——而非通常的 21 个月内，下跌超过了 40%，从而达到了大崩盘的状态。但是，我预计本轮恢复和以往的严重熊市的恢复类似。而且，我推测在新牛市的第一年，本书介绍的许多华尔街法则的表现将会远超市场的整体表现。为什么呢？因为这正是市场在 1973—1974 年和 2000—2002 年这两次二战后大崩盘之后的表现。表 P.1 标普 500 2007—2008 年熊市及以往（1946—2002 年）
熊市中各行业平均表现
标普 500 涉及产业
2007—2008 年变化 1946—2002 年
变化排名
消费品行业 -22% -10% 1
公用事业 -37% -20% 3
医疗保健 -38% -14% 2
能源 -44% -23% 4
电信服务业 -49% -37% 10
标普 500/ 全部行业 -52% -25% 无
信息技术 -53% -27% 6
工业 -55% -32% 9
非必需消费品 -57% -31% 8
材料 -58% -25% 5
金融 -74% -28% 7
来源：标普股市研究（Standard & Poor’s Equity Research）。注：历史业绩不保证未来结果。
以史为证
让我们来看看熊市恢复的时间，以及本书介绍的某些华尔街法则的表现吧！
本轮熊市是自 1929 年以来的第 16 次熊市。超过 50% 的下跌使其成为了自 1945 年以来最大的熊市，以及自 1929 年以来的第 3 大熊市。但是，当这轮熊市最终结束的时候，请准备好一次迅猛的局部恢复。表 P.2 说明了在每新一轮牛市的第一年，标普 500 的平均
表 P.2 以往熊市后的反弹
来源：标普股市研究（Standard & Poor’s Equity Research）。注：历史业绩不保证未来结果。
幅为 46%。而且，每次在第一年中，标普 500 在此前熊市中的损失
都恢复了 82% 以上。我不能担保市场这次也将会有相同的反应，但成功的投资者会抢抓先机——在新一轮牛市的第一年股价将会大幅上涨的
华尔街法则比一般法则更有效
在 2008 年，由于投资者在 5 月至 10 月间被吸引至防御性投资，遵循 5 月清仓离场法则的投资组合表现超过标普 500 指数 15% 以上。那么其他的华尔街投资法则呢？它们在本轮大崩盘的最后一年以及新牛市的第一年的表现如何？
表 P.3 显示了在两轮大崩盘或熊市的最后两年——1974 年和
2002 年，标普 500 和本书的五个投资法则的表现。在这两轮熊市中，损失分别为 48% 和 49%。
表 P.3 中也显示了它们在大崩盘之后新牛市的第一年——1975 年和 2003 年的表现。在新一轮牛市的第一年，“追随赢家”“牛市总在某处”和“1 月看全年”的行业投资组合完胜标普 500。自 1990 年以来，这些使用了本书的投资法则的产业投资组合也战胜了走出大熊市的市场，“没有免费的午餐”和所有等权重投资组合也一样。
表 P.3 熊市后的大行情
在大崩盘的最后一年及新牛市的第一年，“华尔街投资法则”的表现
华尔街投资法则投资组合变化
1974 1975 2002 2003
追随赢家行业 -23.9% 35.8% -11.6% 34.5%
市值加权产业 — — -19.9% 22.1%
等权重产业 — — -10.1% 27.6%
牛市总在某处行业 -21.0% 45.1% -10.0% 41.6%
市值加权产业 — — -13.8% 13.6%
等权重产业 — — -8.3% 26.0%
1 月定全年行业 -19.2% 81.3% -18.2% 72.9%
市值加权产业 — — -21.4% 35.2%
等权重产业 — — -16.2% 53.8%
没有免费的午餐市值加权产业 — — -21.9% 27.9%
续表
在大崩盘的最后一年及新牛市的第一年，“华尔街投资法则”的表现
华尔街投资法则投资组合变化
1974 1975 2002 2003
没有免费的午餐等权重产业 — — -25.5% 44.7%
标普 500 -29.7% 31.5% -23.4% 26.4
来源：标普股市研究（Standard & Poor’s Equity Research）。注：历史业绩不保证未来结果。
那么这次将会发生什么呢？在哪年将会出现新一轮的牛市？本书介绍的华尔街法则将再次有效吗？没人能确切地知道，但是我相信，如果你因为刚刚遭受的打击而退出股市的话，当船最终入港的时候，你却很可能身在机场。

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