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失序的资本:QE后遗症·重建亚洲金融新秩序

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失序的资本:QE后遗症·重建亚洲金融新秩序

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诺贝尔经济学奖得主MichaelSpence、伦敦政治经济学院名誉教授LordMeghnadDesai、前国家开发银行副行长高坚、联袂推荐!中国银行业管理监督委员会首席顾问沈联涛、利丰集团荣誉主席冯国经.
Content Description

《失序的资本:QE后遗症·重建亚洲金融新秩序》中,作者深刻地探讨了近代两次金融危机的祸根,是如何从西方国家产生,并漫延全球,以及亚洲各国在应对危机时作出的部署成败。包括:美国为了自救而放任QE的后患、中国从高速增长到“新常态”的进程、韩国如何闯出金融自由化的荊棘路、安倍经济学能否扭转日本经济崩坏等重要课题,带出在未来的世界金融体系里,亚洲新兴国家如能在全球金融治理中获得更大的发言权,重建全球金融新秩序。
Author Description

梁凤仪,现任香港证券及期货事务监察委员会执行董事。1994年加入香港金融管理局,2008年出任特区政府财经事务及库务局副局长。梁女士服务香港金融界超过二十载,一直负责金融市场发展、研究及制订金融政策的工作。在任期间,她亲历及致身于应对97/98年的亚洲金融风暴,以及十年后所发生的全球金融海啸,同时她亦见证了内地和香港金融市场日益融合的大趋势。
Catalogue

第一章 亚洲的机遇 1
亚洲国家逐步建立“自救”计划 4
噩梦的根源:宽松货币环境 10
亚洲欧美财政政策分歧严重 12
美国QE的祸害 15
第二章 美国自行其是:不管他人瓦上霜 21
祸兮福所倚,福兮祸所伏 23
有毒证券,散播全球 25
全球金融危机涌起 28
格林斯潘埋伏危机 34
全力围堵危机 37
压力测试是关键 40
政治这回事 45
第三章 日本的最终寄望:安倍经济学 49
“三支箭”策略的决心 51
货币政策朝令夕改? 55
快速响应全球金融危机 60
元高水反效果 61
大规模干预汇市 64
竞相量宽新政 65
第四章 中国:从高速增长到“新常态” 71
改革经济发展模式 74
亚洲出口导向发展模式 79
全球储蓄过剩,贸易顺差不平衡 81
重锤出击,四万亿人民币刺激经济 83
违规贷款涌现,政府快速应对 85
扩大市场力量的发展思路 87
金融体系改革的障碍 89
第五章 香港、新加坡:固本培元强化抗灾能力 95
跨国银行“提款机” 98
国际资本,回流亚洲 103
比欧美日银行定更高资本充足比率 105
港新“辣招”,同抗地产泡沫 109
美国视房市调控为干预市场 112
第六章 亚洲新兴市场:资本恶浪中的自卫术 115
印度尼西亚:重整银行体系 117
央行进退两难 118
建立外汇巨额储备的重要性 120
泰国:资本管制对投资者的威吓 127
马来西亚:打造健全投资市场 129
无视IMF建议,坚持资本管制措施 130
第七章 韩国:闯出金融自由化荆棘路 133
互换货币协议的救助计划 136
限制游资大幅进出的三道防线 138
灾后共识,全面整顿银行体制 140
企业管治改革,大削债务危机 142
第八章 亚洲保持货币金融稳定的框架 147
金融危机管理 149
欧美处境有别,应对方法各异 150
亚洲央行应对美元紧缺 152
活用亚洲经验 154
加强国际合作的几项建议 165
Introduction

推荐序
了解市场,才能有效监管市场
在现代金融市场当一个监管者或决策人实在吃力不讨好。毕竟从本质上,市场总是比监管者先行一步,甚至是两三步。首先,丰厚利润是个重大诱因,令市场参与者与学者花大量心血努力去解构市场运作的奥妙。此外,他们不但可以凭信息套利,还可钻税务或监管的空子。
监管者要在不确定的市场状况下执行公共政策及法规,不得不跟市场参与者持续角力。但是,监管者并不能掌握所有市场信息,亦不能担保政策工具能发挥预期效果。顺景的时候,市场中人确信自己眼光独到、运筹帷幄;市况逆转甚或出现金融危机的话,大家便交相指责监管机构办事不力。
在金融市场全球化以前,大家的日子其实比较好过,不管是汇率、利率或存款利率都非常稳定,不会突然变动,更不受他国的变动影响。然而在全球化浪潮下,金融市场每天运作差不多十八小时,每年交易的日子接近三百天。
香港金管局在1993年4月成立,在香港回归中国前开始从政府手上接过监管市场的功能。新闻界出身的梁凤仪也在这个时候加入香港金融管理局,负责对外事务特别是跟市场人士、全球各地监管当局及央行官员合作,推动及建立亚洲债券基金。除了对外事务外,凤仪也负责金管局的有关内地金融市场合作,在引入人民币银行业务、人民币国债及点心债,发挥直接推动的作用。
金管局入市,亵渎利伯维尔场理论?
金管局首任总裁任志刚先生深深明白,新成立的监管机构需要通晓金融市场情况但非传统央行出身的人才,以确保跟市场及其他监管机构及政府官员的沟通和合作。毕竟,弄错市场或官方反应及信息往往导致政策失误,又或令好的政策无法有效推行。
了解市场才能监管市场是金融监管的首要原则。在世纪交替的二十年中,发生了两场惊天动地的金融危机,它们深深动摇了原来被视为金科玉律的金融理论及政策,引发南辕北辙的响应、应对策略及效果。1998年当金管局入市反击炒卖活动捍卫港元及联汇制度时,很多人批评这做法是对利伯维尔场理论的亵渎。
但当美国、欧洲、日本、英国央行以非传统货币政策如量宽等应付2007/08年全球金融海啸时,他们实际上是把传统的规范都丢到九霄之外,并肆意动用非常手段如把央行资产负债表扩大两三倍及大手购入次贷债券及股票,以防止金融体系崩溃。然而,这次金融危机充分反映发达国家监管机构对本身金融体系的复杂性、脆弱性根本不了解,更不要说能明白新兴市场的情况。
2008年8月,梁凤仪从金管局转投政府,出任财经事务及库务局副局长,因为她深信推动政策不能脱离市场和政治现实。当时正值金融海啸雷曼危机爆发期间,站上政治前线,她设身处地参与政策的讨论、制订及执行,并对各种力量包括立法会、本地、区域和国际传媒及民意如何在政策制订过程中角力互动,有深刻体会。
亲历金融海啸,观察全球复苏过程
2013年底梁凤仪离开副局长岗位,并把她对金融海啸的体验及观察特别是亚洲如何克服困难推动全球复苏写下来。这本著作可说非常珍贵,因为香港是个资金流动最自由的地方,对亚洲金融发展有独特的位置及作用。“资本洪流”清楚说明庞大资本流动能如何改变金融市场的面貌。
香港向来是各地资金荟萃的地方,它们包括本地资金、内地的储蓄、亚太区各国资金乃至来自发达国家的游资。香港的独特优势在于她位处全球增长最快的地区。一方面,香港毗邻大中华、日本、韩国这个巨大制造业中心;另一方面,香港又跟南部资源丰富的东盟新兴经济体关系密切。
作为地区投资及贸易中心巩固了香港金融中心的位置,实施联汇制度则令资本可以轻易及自由地每天从纽约、伦敦流到香港。凤仪在香港晋身国际金融中心的路上有独特的贡献,除了对发展、保障金融市场的坚定信念外,她还有跟不同阶层的人对话的能力,不管是来自巴塞尔的央行官员、内地官员、散户投资者或国际大型投资银行,她凭耐心及开放的襟怀,善于聆听,建立互信的基础,成功推动政策。她勇于承认自己并非“万事通”,并把身边的人视为良师益友。在变动不定的世事洪流中,开放的胸襟及虚怀若谷是领袖的必要条件。
金融市场已变得如此复杂难懂,实在不容易再找到像凤仪这样的人物,可以化繁为简,深入浅出地解释金融体系及政策,令一般人很容易明白。
处理金融危机,没有“标准答案”
有关亚洲及亚洲金融市场的书可说汗牛充栋,只是大部分都由非亚洲的学者撰写。这本书却截然不同,写的人既了解亚洲特别是中国文化、历史、体制的细致含蓄,又具备国际视野,并亲身见证亚洲的巨变。从这本书你可以体会到在今天如此多变、动荡及不确定的情境下作决策及选择是如何困难。
在1997/98年亚洲金融风暴、2007/08年全球金融海啸以前,大家都以为有“标准答案”应对危机,实际上这些“答案”不但天真、幼稚,更错得厉害。当亚洲各国在金融风暴中丢掉“教科书”的答案,而另行找对策时,西方决策者及学者实时大呼小叫,认为灾难难免,后患无穷。到西方大国变得离经叛道时,像凤仪般的亚洲财政官员冷静应对新的游戏规则,以务实态度面对,始终以政策效果而不是意识形态为优先考虑。正是这份理性务实令香港特区、中国乃至亚太区保持稳定,从而促进全球金融稳定发展。
金融市场及亚洲金融业依然要在模糊、不确定甚至混乱的状态中前进。正是凤仪等人在过程中为大家点灯引路。我在此大力推荐凤仪这本优秀著作,它是让读者明白资本流动如何冲击全球、亚洲如何应对及适应金融风浪冲击的好书。
沈联涛
中国银行业管理监督委员会首席顾问

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Jingdong book