利贫增长的公共政策研究（英文版）

There is a broad consensus that the growth process that brings developing Asian regions into the high growth path in recent years is itself unequal. The experience of Asia is， on the one hand， characterized by large-scale poverty reduction and， on the other， is the increase in inequality. In the process of developing， many countries have witnessed increasing inequality and the wealth gap between all income groups， regions and urban ancl rural areas is increasingly widening. Poverty reduction outcomes and the reality of inequality are in stark contrast， which led to the query on whether Asia is experiencing pro-poor or inclusive growth. Poverty reduction reflects the inclusiveness， but the growing inequality has shown an opposite conclusion. Few countries have not only achieved sustained economic growth， but also poverty and inequality reduction Iike Malaysia.
In addition to the persistence of poverty and the growing inequality， the recent estimates show that 72% of the world's poor live in middle-income countries. Despite the improvement in the overall situation of poverty， many families in rural and urban areas remain fragile. They are at or slightly above the poverty line ancl it is very easy for them to return to poverty due to rising medical and education costs or， more generally， the imperfect social security systems. In recent years， due to rising food prices， energy costs and the changes in environmental conditions， many families have become increasingly vulnerable. Therefore， to the developing countries with a higher economic growth rate and the mid.dle-income countnies， it is key to ensure that the quality of economic growth will not weaken due to growing inequality ancl to develop social， welfare and other public policies to meet the needs of disadvantaged families as much as possible.

Foreword

Chapter 1 Strategy for Avoiding the "Middle-income Trap"
Ⅰ. Typical experiences and lessons of countries escaped the "middle-income trap"
Ⅱ. China's pressure in the restructuring process and difficulties in the adjustment of demand structure
Ⅲ. Difficulties in industrial structure adjustment in the restructuring process
Ⅳ. Strategy for escaping the "middle-income trap"

Chapter 2 Friscal and Taxation Policy Conducive to Poverty Reduction and Green Growth
Ⅰ. Theoretical Analysis of Poverty Alleviation and Green Growth
Ⅱ. Effect of Supportive Fiscal & Taxation Policies for Green Growth and Challenges for Poverty Reduction
Ⅲ. Creating fiscal and tax policy concepts which are conducive to poverty reduction and green growth

Chapter 3 Pro-poor Distributive Policies in China
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. China's income distribution policies and their anti-poverty effects
Ⅲ. Reform direction of China's income distribution policy

Chapter 4 Social Policies Beneficial to Poverty Alleviation： China's Experience and Future Strategic Alternatives
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Social security system
Ⅲ. Development of education, medical and health services
Ⅳ. Proactive intervention strategies for labor market
Ⅴ. Great success of the rural anti-poverty policy
Ⅵ. Future strategic choices

Chapter 5 Analysis of the Impact of China's Monetary Policies on Income Distribution and Poverty Reduction
Ⅰ. Inflation, Money Supply and Monetary Regulation in China Since 2000
Ⅱ. The Impact of Inflation on Income Distribution through Consumption Pattems
Ⅲ. The Impact of Inflation and Real Interest Rate Variations on Income Distribution
Ⅳ. Credit Policies and Income Distribution
Ⅴ. Analysis of the Relations between China's Monetary Policies and Economic Growth Pattern
Ⅵ. Summary and Policy Proposal

Chapter 6 Low-carbon Poverty Alleviation： OppOftrrrrities, Challenges and Policy Recommendations
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Carbon finance innovation to combat climate change
Ⅲ. Opportunities and challenges for "Low-carbon Poverty Alleviation"
Ⅳ. Innovation in carbon finance and the policy framework for "Low-carbon Poverty Alleviation"
Ⅴ. Industrial planning for "Low-carbon Poverty Alleviation"

Ⅱ. China's pressure in the restructuring process and difficulties in the adiustment of demand structure
Looking back on the development over the past three decades， China is successful in turning itself from a low-income country into a middle-income economy. When it was a low-income country， with the advantages of rich labor resources and low wage costs， China actively attracted foreign investment to develop export-oriented labor-intensive industries. After the development in two decades， China has basically eliminated the "double deficits" - savings gap ancl foreign exchange gap. Particularly since the mid-1990s， after entering the ranks of middle-income countries， China has had a growing number of savings surplus and foreign exchange surplus. During this period， China has used the¨double surplus" to promote the industrial structure adjustment from labor-intensive to capital-intensive. As a result， energy and raw material extraction， electricity and gas production， petrochemical industry， non-metallic mineral product， black and non-ferrous metal smelting， rolling and processing， metal product and general special equipment manufacturing， transportation equipment manufacturing， electrical machinelry and equipment manufacturing， communication equipment and electronic equipment manufacturing have all witnesse rapid development. In the industrial structure conversion process， the significant increase in China's savings rate， rapid increase in investment rate， increasing net export rate and continuous declining of consumption rate have strongly support.ed the conversion of industrial structure towards capital-intensive industries.
Nowadays China has successfully entered the ranks of upper-middle-income countries. In accordance with the international experience， when a country enters the ranks of upper-middle-income countries， it has to break the lock of the existing growth mechanism， speed up economic restructuring and promote social transformation to avoid the "middle-income trap" and successfully move towards high-income country. In the coming period， China should accelerate economic restructuring and promote social transformation. It is faced with not ony the unprecedented international pressure， but also the domestic institutional and policy dilemma which is more difficult than the former to overcome.
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Significant progress has been made in achieving the Millennium Development Goals in the globe. By 2015， it is estimated， the overall incidence of poverty will decline t0 15%， which means about 920 million people in developing countries will live beloW the international poverty line. This figure is about half of the poor population in 1990. Despite these advances， relatively limited attention has been paid to the sustainable improvement of public welfare and poverty.alleviation， few tentative activities have been carried out to link environment with economic and social issues in practice and few sustainable development plans and programs have achieved tangible results. In the first decade of the new millennium， the paces and levels of poverty reduction have been uneven in different countries. As the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said,¨… obviously the improvement of the livelihoods of the poor has been very slow， which is unacceptable. Meanwhile， many hard-won gains also are affected by climate， food and the economic crisis". Many developing countries are facing new challenges， such as the growing gap between the rich and the poor and the uneven development
Internationally， most developing countries are still recovering after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The domestic demand in many areas remains strong， especially in East Asia and the Pacific. The demands of developing countries contributed more than 50% to the additional global imports in 2010. In addition， the exports of developing countries witnessed rapid growth in recent years and the capital inflows to developing countries in 2010 also increased significantly.
But risks remain， including the political turmoil in Middle East and North Africa region， the sluggish market in the "U.S." and Europe， rising prices of basic foods， commodities and oils， reduction of the size of international supply of credit， etc. On the whole， however， economic growth prospects remain optimistic， especially in middle-income countries （MICs） thanks to rising domestic demand， strong capital inflows and strong export growth. In East Asia and Pacific region， dulning the period from 2011 t0 2013， the average economic growth rate is expected to reach 8.3%. South Asia is also expected to achieve similar high growth rates and the average growth rate from 2011 to 2013 is exPected to reach 7.7%.
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